2018 FIFA World Cup draw results

[Chris]

TOP THINGS TO KNOW

1. The draw for the 21st FIFA World Cup was held today in Moscow, as the 32 teams were drawn into eight groups of four. The tournament begins June 14 with Russia-Saudi Arabia and ends with the final on July 15.



2. Five-time winner Brazil is the favorite to win the World Cup according to FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index. Defending champion Germany is the betting favorite, followed closely by Brazil. Belgium has the shortest odds of any country never to win the World Cup.



3. What’s the toughest group? Top to bottom, SPI points to Group B, with the highest average SPI rating (81.7). The group is headlined by Portugal and Iberian neighbor Spain, who have combined to win the last three European Championships. No group has two previous World Cup champions for the first time since 2006.



4. Mexico is in a difficult Group F with Germany, Sweden and South Korea. FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index rates this as the second-toughest group by average rating and gives Mexico a 51% chance to reach the knockout round.



2018 WORLD CUP GROUPS

Group A: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay

Group B: Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran

Group C: France, Australia, Peru, Denmark

Group D: Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria

Group E: Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia

Group F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea

Group G: Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, England

Group H: Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan



Average FiveThirtyEight Soccer Power Index Rating & Rank by Group

Rating<< Rank

Group B 81.7 17.8

Group F 80.3 21.0

Group D 80.2 17.8

Group E 80.0 20.5

Group C 79.0 22.0

Group H 77.4 23.0

Group G 76.0 28.3

Group A 71.6 37.0

>>Teams are rated on a 0-100 scale



Favorites to Win World Cup – According to FiveThirtyEight’s SPI

Brazil 20.8%

Spain 15.9%

Germany 10.9%

Argentina 7.0%

France 6.0%

Belgium 5.7%

Portugal 5.4%

England 4.9%



- Defending champion Germany is the betting favorite, followed closely by five-time winner Brazil. Belgium has the shortest odds of any country never to win the World Cup.



Odds to Win World Cup – Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Germany 9-2

Brazil 5-1

France 11-2

Spain 7-1

Argentina 8-1

Belgium 12-1





GROUP-BY-GROUP NOTES & SPI ODDS

- FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index is an exclusive algorithm designed to predict soccer matches and tournaments.



Group A

SPI Pct to Advance

Russia 74.0%

Uruguay 71.9%

Egypt 39.9%

Saudi Arabia 14.2%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Russia-Saudi Arabia will be the opening game of the tournament on June 14.

- The only host ever to be eliminated in group stage is South Africa in 2010.

- Group A is by far the weakest group according to SPI, with an average SPI rating of 71.6 and average rank of 37.0.

- Group A is the only group without a team ranked in the top 10 of SPI is as host Russia is ranked 27th. The top-ranked team in that group is Uruguay at No. 11. Group A also contains the lowest ranked team in the field with No. 73 Saudi Arabia.

- Saudi Arabia is winless in 10 straight World Cup games.



Group B

SPI Pct to Advance

Spain 82.5%

Portugal 63.1%

Iran 27.5%

Morocco 26.9%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Top to bottom, the most difficult group according to SPI, with an average rating of 81.7 and average rank of 17.8.

- Portugal and Spain have combined to win the last three European Championships.

- Spain eliminated its Iberian neighbor Portugal in the 2010 World Cup Round of 16 and EURO 2012 semifinals.

- Spain and Morocco are separated by the Strait of Gibraltar, which is about 9 miles wide. Spain and Morocco have played twice before, in a playoff for the 1962 World Cup. Spain won both games and qualified.

- Portugal is grouped with Iran, which is coached by Carlos Quieroz, who is Portuguese.



Group C

SPI Pct to Advance

France 75.2%

Denmark 54.4%

Peru 46.6%

Australia 23.7%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Denmark has been grouped with France in 3 of its 5 World Cup apps, Denmark won in 2002, France won in 1998.

- Denmark: Reached knockout stage in 3 of its previous 4 World Cup apps.

- Peru ended the longest drought since previously appearing, qualifying for the first time since 1982.

- In each of Peru’s previous 4 World Cup appearances it has faced the eventual champion.



Group D

SPI Pct to Advance

Argentina 74.1%

Croatia 56.7%

Nigeria 36.3%

Iceland 32.9%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Argentina beat Croatia 1-0 in the 1998 group stage, their only previous World Cup meeting.

- Argentina-Nigeria will be the first pair of teams to play in the Group Stage at three straight World Cups. This will be the fifth time Argentina and Nigeria have been grouped together at the World Cup since 1994. Argentina won the four previous games by one goal.



Argentina-Nigeria World Cup Meetings

Winner Score

2018 ? ?

2014 Argentina 3-2

2010 Argentina 1-0

2002 Argentina 1-0

1994 Argentina 2-1

>> All in Group Stage



- Iceland won its UEFA qualifying group ahead of Croatia. The home team won each of their two meetings.

- Iceland is the smallest country ever to qualify for World Cup (population of 340K). It is also one of two countries that will make their World Cup debuts (Panama).



Group E

SPI Pct to Advance

Brazil 89.6%

Switzerland 43.3%

Serbia 37.4%

Costa Rica 29.6%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia were all grouped together at the 1950 World Cup (sort of...Yugoslavia was in the group, and Yugoslavia's soccer history is rolled into Serbia's).

- Brazil has advanced from the Group stage in 12 straight World Cups, last failing to advance in 1966.



Group F

SPI Pct to Advance

Germany 82.5%

Mexico 51.0%

Sweden 48.2%

South Korea 18.3%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Germany is 2-0-1 vs Mexico vs at the World Cup, advancing on PKs after that draw, in the 1986 quarterfinals. They last met in the World Cup in the 1998 round of 16. Germany defeated Mexico 4-1 in the Confederations Cup semifinals in June.

- Defending champion Germany looks to be the third repeat World Cup winner and the first since Brazil won its first two titles in 1958 and 1962. Italy (1934 and 1938) is the only other team to repeat. The last defending champion to reach the final was Brazil in 1998. Three of the last four defending champions have failed to advance past the Group Stage.



Defending Champion at World Cup – Since 2002

Result

2018 Germany ?

2014 Spain Group Stage

2010 Italy Group Stage

2006 Brazil Quarterfinals

2002 France Group Stage



- The only previous World Cup match between Sweden and Mexico was a 3-0 Sweden group win in 1958, when Sweden was host and went on to finish runner-up to Brazil.

- As group runner-up, Mexico would likely play Brazil in the Round of 16. Mexico has been eliminated in the Round of 16 at six straight World Cups.



Mexico at Last 6 World Cups

Eliminated by

2014 Round of 16 Netherlands

2010 Round of 16 Argentina

2006 Round of 16 Argentina

2002 Round of 16 United States

1998 Round of 16 Germany

1994 Round of 16 Bulgaria



Group G

SPI Pct to Advance

Belgium 80.5%

England 75.5%

Panama 29.3%

Tunisia 14.8%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- England and Belgium last met in the World Cup in the 1990 Round of 16, when England won and went on to reach the semifinals.

- Panama is one of two countries that will make their World Cup debuts (Iceland).



Group H

SPI Pct to Advance

Colombia 70.2%

Poland 50.3%

Japan 48.6%

Senegal 30.8%

>>According to FiveThirtyEight



- Colombia and Japan are grouped for the second straight World Cup (Colombia won 4-1 in 2014).

- Senegal: Upset defending champion France at 2002 World Cup; became 2nd African nation to reach World Cup quarterfinals (1990 Cameroon).

[Arch_Angel]

World Cup next year!!! Nice!!!
Should look up some of our old World Cup threads we had here. Think we posted the results of each group match on a daily basis.
Fun stuff.

[Chris]

Just a pity there are no Caribbean countries that made it.